Opportunities and Challenges en route to Realizing Agenda 2030 – The Role of Cities

LAG21 Closing Event 

Opportunities and Challenges en route to Realizing Agenda 2030 – The Role of Cities

As part of LAG21’s Global Sustainable Municipality in NRW (GNK NRW) Closing Event, Prof. Dr. Dirk Messner (German Development Institute/ Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE); German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)) gave a keynote on the path dependency of the accelerated speed, scale and force of the urbanization surge in order to be utilized as an opportunity for a sustainable and overall prosperous future One World or rather a seal of the ill faith of humanity.

 

Speaker

  • Prof. Dr. Dirk Messner
    • German Development Institute/ Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE)
    • German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)

 

The Road Ahead

By 2050, 66% of humanity is projected to live in urban areas, i.e. cities (UN, 2014). The way cities accomplish accommodating the almost doubling number of urban residents, rising from 2.3 billion in 1990 to 6.5-7 billion by 2050, will be the deciding factor whether Agenda 2030 will be realized. Using conventional materials to double the built infrastructure in order to accommodate the additional amount of urban dwellers will use up most of the CO2 budget under the 1.5° C scenario by itself. Exemplifying the speed, scale and force of the urbanization surge, one can take a look at China’s recent urban development process: more cement was used between 2008- 2010 alone than during the entire 20th century in the US.

Higher, Faster, Further

Worldwide newly emerging and already existing cities will presumably follow one of three major urbanization patterns to accommodate their new residents:

  1. Slums
  2. Rapidly new planned urban settlements
  3. Suburbs/ Urban Sprawl

From a socio-spatial perspective, urban structure affects social processes too. Cities are therefore faced with different challenges they need to adapt to in order to maintain a properly functioning, i.e. sustainable, society.

Path Dependency

The vast amount of newly incoming urban dwellers into cities could, however, also be utilized to create a currently rather Utopian seeming urban future. By applying the right guiding principles to the forthcoming accelerated urban development process, human urban existence could be send on a path where it becomes a driving force creating a sustainable landscape in all aspects of life. Prof. Dr. Dirk Messner and the WBGU propose a Normative compass: A social contract for the urban transformation that rests on three guiding principles to successfully face the urban challenge of the 21st century:

  1. Ensure inclusion[/ urban futures social equity]
  2. Sustain natural life-support systems[/ social access]
  3. Promote ‘Eigenart’ – cities and well-being, social-cohesion, creativity and innovation [/ organic human-centered urban development]

Keeping on Track, Together

With the normative compass guiding the urbanization surge, six focal points emerge to secure national and global public welfare:

  1. Global-cooperation
  2. Earth system & planetary boundaries
  3. Social equity
  4. Social world-economy
  5. Infrastructural revolution
  6. Humanitarian security & – anti-fragility

All public and privat stakeholders are requested to align their agenda – thinking, doing, being – accordingly to key activities that are derived from the six focal points:

  1. Repression of nationalism and authoritarianism; applying a global long-term vision to authorities decision-making process and institutional knowledge creation → Multilateral organizations, transnational networks, EU
  2. Realization of decarbonization, global circular economy (pressed for time!) → G20/ G7, companies, cities, EU
  3. Revision of tax systems, support for Bottom 40%, distribution and usage of public goods → OECD, regional development banks, EU
  4. Reshaping trade policies, and financial and tax systems → G20/ G7, alliances, EU
  5. Reinforcing resource-saving, climate-neutral and people-centered energy use, urbanism and transport (pressed for time!) → Private sector, banks, cities
  6. Reorganization of conflict management, governance and social cohesion → Foreign affairs and security policy

You want to read more on whether urban population growth and path dependency will be utilized as an opportunity for a sustainable and overall prosperous future or rather seal the ill faith of humanity? Follow up with this Tweet:

 

The German Development Institute’s (DIE) Website

The German Development Institute’s (DIE) Twitter account

German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) Website

German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) Twitter account

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